WaterFire Symposium: Author Talk with W. Joseph Campbell

A VIRTUAL WaterFire Symposium, Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections w/author W. Joseph Campbell

About this Event

WaterFire Symposium: Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections w/author W. Joseph Campbell + moderator, William Miller | Thursday October 29, 6:00 – 7:00 p.m.

“A sweeping look at the messy and contentious past of US presidential pre-election polls and why they aren’t as reliable as we think.” – https://www.ucpress.edu/

ABOUT THE BOOK

Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival collections and contemporaneous sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris.

The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists—including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson—were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling’s messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important of all American elections.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

W. Joseph Campbell is an American writer, educator, historian, media critic, and blogger. He has written seven solo-authored books, including Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections. Publishers Weekly praised the book as being a “bracing reality check.”

Campbell is a professor of communication at American University’s School of Communication. He earned his doctorate in mass communication at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before entering the academy, Campbell was a professional journalist for some 20 years, a career that took him across North America to Europe, West Africa, and parts of Asia.

Critics have referred to Campbell as “the man who calls journalists on their own B.S.” and “the master of debunk.” His other books include two editions of the award-winning, media-mythbusting work, Getting It Wrong. He also is the author of the well-received 1995: The Year the Future Began.

ABOUT THE MODERATOR

Bill Miller is an adjunct professor of journalism, teaching Communication Law. He has spent most of his career as a reporter and editor, working for more than 30 years at the (Cleveland) Plain Dealer, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Washington Post. He is now the communications director for the Court Services and Offender Supervision Agency (CSOSA), the federal agency that supervises 10,000 people on parole, probation, and supervised release in the District of Columbia. He worked 17 years at the Washington Post, handling local and national beats, and led the local coverage of President Obama’s first inauguration. In 2010, he became the spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the District of Columbia, the largest such office in the nation. Mid-career, he came to AU to pursue and earn a Master’s in Justice, attending classes at night. His experience at AU helped enable him to move into the criminal justice field and his dual backgrounds give him an important perspective on both sides of media relations.

ABOUT WATERFIRE SYMPOSIUM

WaterFire is pleased to partner with Symposium Books to host and co-curate this series of public dialogues that are presented for free and are open to all.

The WaterFire Symposium is a series of public lectures, readings and conversations about vital and timely issues from the arts to the sciences, from history to the climate crisis. WaterFire’s mission is to inspire our community. Bringing us all together in cordial discussion about the issues impacting our community helps us better understand the issues of the day.

**The views and opinions expressed by speakers/presenters at the WaterFire Arts Center are those of the speakers/authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of WaterFire Providence or any of our partners, sponsors, or supporters.**